Category: Bearing Credit Bubble Index

Bearing Credit Bubble Index finishes 2008 down 55%

Indices, year-to-date:

  • BCBI: -55.26%
  • S&P 500: -38.49%
  • Nasdaq 100: -41.89%

Sub-indices, year-to-date:

  • Government-sponsored enterprises: -97.95%
  • Subprime lenders: -79.93%
  • Credit insurance: -77.99%
  • Brokers: -73.17%
  • Non-bank financial: -53.97%
  • Banks: -52.65%
  • Homebuilders: -16.49%

Bearing Credit Bubble Index down 54.4% year-to-date through November

Indices, year-to-date:
  • BCBI: -54.41%
  • S&P 500: -38.96%
  • Nasdaq 100: -43.13%

Sub-indices, year-to-date:

  • Government-sponsored enterprises: -96.79%
  • Subprime lenders: -79.94%
  • Credit insurance: -79.11%
  • Brokers: -74.03%
  • Non-bank financial: -52.13%
  • Banks: -50.07%
  • Homebuilders: -22.83%

Biggest losers in November:

  • Credit insurance: -33.50%
  • Banks: -24.21%
  • Brokers: -18.45%

Bearing Credit Bubble Index hits 10-year low in October

Indices, year-to-date:

  • BCBI: -46.86%
  • S&P 500: -34.03%
  • Nasdaq 100: -35.98%

Sub-indices, year-to-date:

  • Government-sponsored enterprises: -97.32%
  • Subprime lenders: -77.66%
  • Credit insurance: -68.59%
  • Brokers: -68.16%
  • Non-bank financial: -45.61%
  • Banks: -34.13%
  • Homebuilders: -16.31%

Bearing Credit Bubble Index hits 8 1/2-year low in September

Bearing Credit Bubble Index -1.57% in August to 8 1/2 year low

Indices, year-to-date:

  • BCBI: -35.03%
  • S&P 500: -12.64%
  • Nasdaq 100: -10.19%

Sub-indices, year-to-date:

  • Government-sponsored enterprises: -83.99%
  • Subprime lenders: -76.87%
  • Credit insurance: -49.51%
  • Brokers: -36.47%
  • Banks: -24.03%
  • Non-bank financial: -22.60%
  • Homebuilders: +10.58%

Bearing Credit Bubble Index plunges to 8-year low in June

The Bearing Credit Bubble Index was the lead sled dog in a miserable June, -16.76%. The S&P 500 was -8.60% for the month, while the Nasdaq 100 was -9.62%. Since hitting an all-time high of 1102.86 on December 31, 2006, the BCBI has imploded 55.53% in 18 months vs. a loss of just 9.75% for the S&P 500. Since the peak, the sub-indices have performed as follows:
  • subprime lenders: -97.21%
  • credit insurance: -84.51%
  • gov’t-sponsored enterprises: -69.00%
  • homebuilders: -67.20%
  • banks: -54.11%
  • brokers: -45.21%
  • non-bank financials: -24.50%

The BCBI is now down 31.44% for the first half of 2008, nearing the 35.14% loss for all of 2007.

Bearing Credit Bubble Index continues slow bleed, dropping 6.08% in May

The Bearing Credit Bubble Index badly underperformed the S&P 500 (+1.07%) and Nasdaq 100 (+5.99%) during May.

Indices, year-to-date:

  • BCBI: -17.63%
  • S&P 500: -4.63%
  • Nasdaq 100: -2.51%
Sub-indices, year-to-date:
  • Homebuilders: +5.98%
  • Banks: -15.01%
  • Non bank financial: -16.35%
  • Brokers: -21.26%
  • GSEs: -28.38%
  • Credit insurance: -52.17%
  • Subprime lending: -60.03%
The BCBI is now 46.6% below its December 31, 2006 high.

Bearing Credit Bubble Index +3.64% in April


The BCBI underperformed the S&P 500 (+4.75%) and Nasdaq 100 (+7.62%) during the month. Year-to-date:

  • BCBI: -12.30%
  • S&P 500: -5.64%
  • Nasdaq 100: -8.02%

Sub-indices year-to-date:

  • Homebuilders: +13.74%
  • Banks: -4.25%
  • Non-bank financial: -10.96%
  • Brokers: -12.45%
  • GSEs: -27.02%
  • Subprime lenders: -44.34%
  • Credit insurance: -45.87%

At 627.31, the Bearing Credit Bubble is now 42.3% below its all-time high set January 31, 2007, and at its lowest level since March 31, 2003 – right as the 5-year bull market was getting underway.

Bearing Credit Bubble Index finishes 2007 down 35%

The Bearing Credit Bubble Index was -35.14% in 2007, led by massive losses in subprime lending and credit insurance:

  • subprime lending: -89.15%
  • credit insurance: -70.86%
  • homebuilding: -60.74%
  • government-sponsored enterprises: -37.61%
  • banking: -28.88%
  • brokerage: -15.31%
  • non-bank financial: +2.69%

Meanwhile, the broad averages masked the damage, with the S&P 500 +3.53% on the year and the Nasdaq 100 +18.67%. The global boom theme was alive and well with emerging markets (EEM) +31.5% led by China (FXI) +54.8%. The disconnect is unlike any we’ve seen (and reminiscent of 2000 when investors sold their Old Economy furniture to buy more New Economy lottery tickets.)

The credit canary is stone cold dead, yet the Bubblevision faithful continue to pour down the speculative mine shaft. Our advice for 2008: Get long bodybags.

Bearing Credit Bubble Index slides 5% in October, led by 39% plunge in credit insurance stocks

For the month of October, the Bearing Credit Bubble Index was -5.43% with the S&P 500 +1.48% and the Nasdaq 100 +7.07%. The credit insurance sub-index cratered, -38.88%, to an eleven year low.

Year-to-date, the carnage in credit land is unprecedented:
  • Subprime lending: -81.37%
  • Credit insurance: -65.40%
  • Homebuilding: -50.11%
  • Banking: -12.99%
  • GSEs: -9.02%
  • Brokerage firms: -5.78%
  • Non-bank financials: +13.08%

Of the 22 component stocks in the credit index, 19 are down for the year; 6 have been more than cut in half. Just 3 stocks are up on the year, led by Goldman Sachs with a total return of +25.18%.

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