Category: commodity bubble

Commodity bubble reaches July, 2008 levels

These were the vital signs at the top of the commodity bubble on July 4, 2008 when crude oil traded at $145/bbl:

  • Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index = 472.36
  • average Bullish Consensus = 68.9% (18 commodities)
  • soybeans = 89%
  • crude oil = 80%
  • heating oil = 84%
  • natural gas = 85%
  • cocoa = 86%

Today:

  • Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index = 341.27
  • average Bullish Consensus = 70.0%
  • corn = 82%
  • coffee = 94%
  • cotton = 96%
  • copper = 80%
  • silver = 84%

The 2008 bubble was fueled by the energy complex (crude -39%, heating oil -34%, nat gas -71% since).  It’s 2011 cousin is inspired by the endless-demand-from-China fantasy with the wildest speculation in soft commodities like cotton, coffee and sugar, and industrial metals like copper, palladium and platinum.

WordPress Themes