Category: employment

Estimates overstate job growth

Seems like the American economy did not produce the number of jobs originally reported this past Spring.

The new report concluded that personal income from wages and salaries grew at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the second quarter, far below the 4.5 percent that had previously been estimated.

The government did not explain why the revision was made, and it is possible that some of it came from reducing estimates of wages or of the profits that employees received from exercising stock options. But it was most likely, said Robert J. Barbera, the chief economist of ITG, that the largest part of the revision came from a change in employment estimates.

If so, he said, he expected the government would revise its estimate of the number of jobs created in the quarter, to as little as 50,000 a month from 126,000 a month. That would indicate that the economy was much weaker than had been thought.

My comments: Of course this is one of the main ingredients in the Ben Bernanke monetary policy recipe book. Houston, we have a problem.

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